Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Initiative Is Seen As a Gift to Putin

For a brief period, the former US president seemed to adopt a firm stance regarding Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "significant ramifications" in August should Russia's president persisted hindering peace talks, he ultimately imposed considerable sanctions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, that was drafted by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or European input, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that very autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate past, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the president. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it stops functions as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's growing autocracy denies them.

Border Surrenders

While freezing in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been failed to seize in more than a decade of conflict, this surrender would make Ukraine's military defenses severely weakened.

This region is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that are a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, providing Putin a clear way to the capital in case he eventually choose to restart the war.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would make additional fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to diminish the size of its troops from their current large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative sets no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people government as Nazis, the plan declares: "All extremist ideology and activities must be opposed and banned." Apparently to highlight this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan makes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". But given that Putin has violated equivalent treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized areas in the region to Ukrainian control – how should anyone trust this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the initiative threatens a "decisive joint armed reaction" in case Russia renew its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the details range from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on the nation's land, thereby blocking the reassurance force, reportedly led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Reaction

An additional supplementary accord apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. However different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against future invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Western powers, including the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not