From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.